Dear readers,

Interesting developments for the pig industry, let’s start with the good ones:

• Kraft Heinz is aiming for a sale price of about $3 billion for it’s hot dog and cold cuts business, Oscar Mayer, as it shifts its focus toward healthier food products, responding to changing consumer preferences and the impact of weight-loss drugs on processed food demand. Brazilian meatpacker JBS and Mexico’s Sigma Alimentos are reportedly in the race to acquire Oscar Mayer, believing in the hot dogs and cold cuts.
• Global multispecies genetics company Hendrix Genetics has signed an agreement to merge its swine division, Hypor, with Danish Genetics and its partners. Hendrix Genetics will hold a majority stake, while Danish Genetics and its partners will maintain a significant portion of the newly formed entity.
• Topigs Norsvin appointed Dick Hordijk as its new CEO. Dick Hordijk is from the Netherlands. Until January 1, 2025, Dick Hordijk is CEO of Royal Agrifirm Group and starts in his new position on March 31, 2025.
•  Researchers at the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences (UAMS) compared how the body processes the proteins in traditional beef burgers to those in Impossible Burgers, a leading plant-based alternative. The beef burger triggered significantly more muscle protein synthesis than the plant-based burger of the same size. While eating two Impossible Burgers achieved similar muscle-building effects as the beef burger, it required consuming nearly twice as many calories (462 versus 279 calories).
• Cem Özdemir , the Muslim and vegan German Federal Minister of Agriculture, seems to have ambitious plans for his political future: he wants to become Prime Minister of Baden-Württemberg. Özdemir plans to remain in his current positions as Federal Minister of Agriculture and Member of the Bundestag until the next federal election in September 2025. Unfortunately, it may be too late. His activity already made a lasting – and negative – effect on the German animal husbandry and meat industry.

Events calendar:

• The results of 2023/24 MY and prospects of the new season for Ukrainian sunflower producers will be discussed on October 30, 2024 in Kyiv at the XXII International Conference Fat-and-Oil Industry-2024.
• The Hungarian Association of Porcine Health Management(MASETA) holds his annual autumn conference in 30 of October, at the Flow Hotel in Inárcs. See you there!
• The INDAGRA FOOD in Bucharest, Romania, is an international trade fair for the food industry. It takes place at the Romexpo Exhibition Center on 5 days: from Wednesday, 30. October to Sunday, 03. November 2024.
• The annual FOOD & DRINKS is hosted at the Thessaloniki International Exhibition Centre by Helexpo in Greece. It’s a central meeting point for the food and beverage industry, attracting professionals from around the world. The FOOD & DRINKS by Detrop will take place on 3 days from Friday, 01. November to Sunday, 03. November 2024.
• The Royal Agricultural Winter Fair is an annual event held in November. Since its founding in 1922, it has been hosted at the Enercare Centre in Exhibition Place in Toronto, Canada. Recognized as the world’s largest indoor agricultural fair, it takes place on 10 days from Friday, 01.11.2024 to Sunday, 10.11.2024.

Stop Crying Your Heart Out

Even with Özdemir on the way out , politics largely modify the map of the European pig industry.

So far, 175 pig farms have been bought out with the voluntary exit scheme created by the Flemish government in two calls. Since the deadline to participate in the program for  the pig farmers in the last call  is May 2025, only then will we have a complete picture of the success of the second call. The pig population in Flanders fell from 6.3 million pigs to 5.4 million in 2022, a 14% decrease. As a consequence, at the end of September, the slaughterhouse group Noordvlees Group decided to stop its slaughtering activities in Kalmthout and to have all pigs slaughtered at Sus Campiniae in Oevel.

Rabobank expects a decline of 10 to 15 percent in the pig population of the Netherlands. This is mainly due to participation in the buyout schemes. 

The number of sows in the eight largest pig-producing countries in the EU decreased by 0.6 percent in the first half of 2024 compared to the end of 2023. In France (minus 0.5 percent), the Netherlands (minus 6 percent) and Italy (minus 6 percent) the sow herd has shrunk. In Germany (plus 1 percent), Denmark (plus 1 percent) and Poland (plus 3 percent) the sow herd has grown slightly in this period, while the number of sows in Belgium and Spain has remained approximately the same. Apart from Poland, production is down in all major producing countries:

• In Spain, Europe’s actual largest producer, production is estimated to fall by 2.2% this year
• in Germany production decrease by 6.3%,
• in the Netherlands by 13.3%
•  in Denmark by 19%.

Pork production in the Union will be the lowest in 15 years. The supply of pigs may become slightly tighter in the second half of this year.

Our already traditional enemy, the African Swine Fever(ASF) is also taking its toll. In Europe, Serbia has reported the most outbreaks in domestic pigs, with 261 cases, followed by Romania (164) and Ukraine (62).

The Ukrainian meat industry criticizes the fact that the Ukrainian Pig Breeders’ Association is relatively cautious about the prospects for using the ASF vaccine. The breeders have suggested that the use of the vaccine should only be approved once well-known international veterinary organizations recognize its effectiveness.  The State Service for Food Safety and Consumer Protection of Ukraine has contacted Vietnam regarding the results of the use of this vaccine, but has not received a response. Meanwhile Vietnam is experiencing more ASF outbreaks this year compared to 2023, with over 63,600 pigs culled as of the end of September to control the spread.

After the decrease of the German quotation for slaughter pigs last Wednesday I received a lot of questions: why is this happening? Is it justified by the market situation?

First question is easier to answer. It is a typical evolution of the pig price by this period of the year:

• 2023: week 40/41 decrease of 10 cents, from 2 € to 1,90 €
• 2022: week 41/42 decrease of 10 cents, from 2,2 € to 2,1 €
• 2021: week 38/39 decrease of 5 cents, from 1,25 € to 1,20 €
• 2020: week 36/37 decrease of 20 cents, from 1,47 € to 1,27 €

 Weights are going up, farmers need to make some space in the barns and the retail is making autumn offers. This was the normal scenario when I started to work in the industry. This brings us to the second question: is it justified? In the last 4 years, I don’t think so… For a long period of time it was a 3 party game between farmers, meat industry and retail, each operating with low margins. Since the Covid pandemic, the retail went for a high margin, leaving the farmers and the meat industry to fight for a few cents. If we look at the last 2 years, it seems that farmers had more success than the slaughterhouses. While the current price decrease is disappointing, it should not be a surprise. Also, we have seen this price level overpassed only once, in 2023. So, dear farmers, please stop crying your heart out!