Dear readers,

We have closed a year full of challenges in the pig industry, but in Europe it was also a profitable year for the pig farmers. With just a few working days, we still find some good news:

• The Missouri state budget allocated $25 million for a new meat laboratory, which will be located on the University of Missouri’s Columbia campus. The new laboratory aims to support training and research for the food science and animal science programs. 
• US Pork stocks continued their declining trend since April, with November figures at 188.400 tons, the lowest for the year. Notably for the specific consumption, the belly stocks decreased even more, with -13.7%.

Happy New Year!

To stay with the US pork industry, the major issue to be followed this year is the way Proposition 12 of California will affect the business. From January 1 all uncooked cuts of whole pork meat sold in California need to be Prop 12 compliant, it will take some time to see if consumers will want to spend more on this meat and availability will also be an issue.

China is also to be followed. The last 3 years meant a strong reduction in the pork import of the largest pork consuming country in the world, especially during the Covid crisis. We are finding it more and more difficult to access reliable open sources for news from the Chinese pork market, current assumption is that the pig industry is loosing 25-30 €/pig for many months now and the economically is unsustainable, but politics will decide the way to solve the issue.

Other main factor is African Swine Fever. Bangladesh has been added to the list of affected countries. Where and how will the disease spread next? We can assume some scenarios based on recent info from Taiwan. As of December 15, the Veterinary Research Institute found 1374 cases of smuggled meat originating from China, with 171 testing positive for ASF, accounting for 12.4%, up from previous years. Two strains of ASF virus were found in a sausage bag brought in by a Chinese visitor, including the genotype II strain circulating since 2018 in China, with its variant causing severe outbreaks there since 2022. Can we see a similar scenario in the European open market?

     Many thanks for the readers of this newsletter, for the valuable comments and inputs! Have a peaceful and wonderful New Year!

European pig and piglet prices: HW= Hot weight; L= live weight;

COUNTRY	PIG(EUR)	TREND	PIGLET(EUR)	TREND	OBSERVATION
GERMANY	2,1 HW		73/25 kg
NETHERLANDS	1,98-2,12 HW		68,5/25 kg
BELGIUM	1,52 L		67/20 kg
DANEMARK	1,705 HW		80/30 kg
FRANCE	1,78 HW
ITALY	1,84 L115kg, 2,18 L160kg, DOC		119/30 kg
SPAIN	1,64 -1,65 L		76-85/20kg
PORTUGAL	2,3 HW
AUSTRIA	2,07 HW		94/31 kg
POLAND	1,47-1,75 L		78-120/20-30 kg		Partner info; no quotation
CROATIA	2,0-2,2 HW		97-102 / 25 kg		Partner info; no quotation
SERBIA	2,12 L		110-117/ 25 kg		Partner info; no quotation
CZECH R.	2,1 HW		69-74/ 25 kg		Partner info; no quotation
SLOVAKIA	1,73 -1,8 L		92-97/25 kg		Partner info; no quotation
HUNGARY	1,7 – 1,92 L		92-97/ 25 kg		Partner info; no quotation
ROMANIA	1,82 – 2,03 L		92-97/25kg		Partner info; no quotation