Dear readers,

Let’s see some good things about the pig industry:

• The “grain agreement” has of the Black sea has been unblocked and will remain in effect until July 18, at least. The Minister of Community Development, Territories and Infrastructure of Ukraine confirmed this information. Russia has agreed to resume inspections of „grain corridor” vessels, but for now only to two of the three ports of Great Odesa.
• the German ruling political coalition start to get doubts related to introduction of the meat-tax, as an instrument to finance the increasing investments in animal welfare. While all parties state that they agree on the principle, the amount and form of the tax is still to be discussed and the final decision, scheduled for last week, was postponed.
• Danish Crown will introduce a new pricing settlement from 1’st of July, in order to gain more stability on the pig supply chain

Events calendar:

• The Novi Sad Fair will mark its 100th anniversary and from May 20 to 26, organize the 90th International Agricultural Fair of Serbia. The weather is good, piglets are on the grill and you have to taste cevapcici. See you there!
• United States National Hog Farmer’s fifth annual Global Hog Industry Virtual Conference is set for Wednesday, May 24.

All ‘Bout The Money

There is a lot of discussion on the prices provided in the table. First of all, we should see separately the issue of the regulated markets. Even there, the price is an indicator. Agreements are based on that price, but can be lower or higher. Actually, in Germany, the real price is higher. Animal welfare bonus(ITW) is paid for many pigs(5,28 €), but also volume bonuses are frequently reaching 10-15 cents. The lowering availability of pigs affected the ranking of the German pig slaughterhouses, Vion’s position weakening the most. There are rumors about plans to close some plants at Vion, this would prolong the awaited reference price increase. Last week there were some low price German pig carcasses available on East-European markets. This, I suppose, was more like a political message. If meat tax will be introduced, German pork producers would prefer to export the meat.

Piglet price is a reference, as well. Whit the actual low availability, farmers are asking for higher bonuses, and transport is more-and more expensive.

Another issue is the currency, some prices in the non-euro countries are showing price level changes that are due to the exchange rate, not to the market situation. When looking into the prices from East-Europe, you can see huge differences: farm gate price, delivered price, long payment term can affect the data shown in the table below.

In addition, African Swine Fever is affecting the markets. Romanian authority was quite optimistic on the development of the disease…until last week: a large farm, with over 18 thousand pigs still in the barn, has been hit by ASF. The disease is also advancing in Italy. The National Reference Laboratory for ASF  has confirmed the presence of the virus in samples from four wild boars, as well as in a domestic pig farm, in the region of Calabria. We see huge jumps between the ASF occurrences in Italy, epidemiologic investigation is in progress. What’s the economic impact? In a study led by Dermot Hayes, an economist with Iowa State University, analysis shows an ASF outbreak would result in a $79.5 billion impact on the pork and beef industries and directly impact 60,000 industry workers with job loss. Pork prices would drop between 50% and 60% and would stay low for three years before recovering. It’s all about the money…

European pig and piglet prices: HW= Hot weight; L= live weight;

COUNTRY	PIG(EUR)	TREND	PIGLET(EUR)	TREND	OBSERVATION
GERMANY	2,33 HW		84,5/25 kg
NETHERLANDS	2,13-2,37 HW		75,50/25 kg
BELGIUM	1,7 L		74/20 kg
DANEMARK	1,85 HW		90/25 kg
FRANCE	2,15 HW
ITALY	1,79 L- 115 kg, 2,11 L- 160 kg, DOC		137/30 kg
SPAIN	2,02-2,05 L		101-111/20kg
PORTUGAL	2,8 HW
AUSTRIA	2,29 HW		97,5 /25 kg
POLAND	1,86-2,21 L		97 -142/20-30 kg		Partner info; no quotation
CROATIA	2,10-2,50 HW		100-110/ 25 kg		Partner info; no quotation
SERBIA	2,4 L		115-125/ 25 kg		Partner info; no quotation
CZECH R.	2,27-2,33 HW		75-81,5/ 25 kg		Partner info; no quotation
SLOVAKIA	1,9-2,05 L		105-110/25 kg		Partner info; no quotation
HUNGARY	2,02-2,12 L		105-111/ 25 kg		Partner info; no quotation
ROMANIA	1,98 -2,2 L		105-111/25kg		Partner info; no quotation