Dear readers,

Let’s see some good news:
• As expected, the Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union on the road freight transport liberalization has been extended until June 30, 2024, reported the press service of the Ministry of Community Development, Territories and Infrastructure of Ukraine.
• As also expected, Turkey and Ukraine say the agreement with Russia to allow grain exports from Ukrainian ports through a safe corridor in the Black Sea has been extended. The duration of the extension remained uncertain on Saturday.” As a result of our talks with the two sides, we have secured an extension to the deal,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said.
• Why is the Black Sea agreement prolonged? In 2022, Russia’s production of grain increased by 29.9% year-on-year – to 157,626 million tonnes, including wheat – up by 36% to 104,237 million tonnes, according to the latest data by Rosstat, reported on March 13. The production of grain in 2022 is still higher compared to the record harvest in 2017 (135,539 million tonnes, including 86,003 million tonnes of wheat). Also, Rosstat made an upward revision of barley production – by 30% to 23.39 million tonnes, corn – by 4% to 15.85 million tonnes, and rye – by 26.5% to 2.179 million tonnes. The production of oats increased by 20% to 4,531 million tonnes, buckwheat – by 33% to 1,222 million tonnes, and pulses – by 18.8% (4,561 thsd tonnes). The average yield of grains and pulses in Russia increased by 25.9% y-o-y to 3.36 t/ha in 2022. And a large part of this has to be exported TROUGH the Black Sea…
• Americans are buying more fresh meat than before the COVID-19 pandemic and are seeking value in terms of price, convenience and better-for attributes in meat purchases, according to the 18th annual Power of Meat report, which was recently released by the Meat Institute and FMI—The Food Industry Association.
• According to a press release from FMI, self-described „meat eaters” comprise 78% of Americans, compared to just 7% who describe themselves as vegan or vegetarian
• This newsletter is the 150th! Thanks for my former colleagues to encourage me to write and distribute them! And thanks for my new colleagues for the support in continuing!
• Starting with this week you can find the market reports on our website:

• In English: https://www.alfoldisertes.hu/news/

• In Hungarian: https://www.alfoldisertes.hu/hirek/

• In Romanian: https://www.alfoldisertes.hu/stiri/

Events calendar:

• The International Fair for Animal Production, FIGAN Zaragoza, Spain, between March 28-31, celebrates its 16th edition and is positioned as a benchmark for sustainability, precision livestock and process improvement.
• Taking place between March 28-30, 2023 at the Las Vegas Convention Center, SIAL America is the United States’ premier cross-category food and beverage tradeshow and conference. Energizing the $1.5 trillion food and beverage industry, SIAL America will host domestic and international exhibitors, key importers, food service companies, distributors, retailers, wholesalers and restaurateurs.

A PERFECT STORM

I am in Athens these days, at the best food fair of the region: https://foodexpo.gr/. Meeting old friends and making new ones is a perfect occasion to debate the situation of the pig industry.
On one hand, it is positive to see some political awakening.
Pekka Pesonen, the Copa-Cogeca secretary spoke in Rome at the conference „The evolution of Italian and European agribusiness between sustainability and welfare,” organized by Withub. „How do we relate to these new products such as synthetic meat? Let’s remember that the legislation allows these foods what it does not allow those of agricultural origin from a chemical point of view,” Pesonen called Italy a „good example of our agricultural culture” in Europe. „These synthetic products may become complementary in the market, but they will never be able to replace in all respects the traditional ones -argues Pesonen-. Only if we can do a job on labeling” however, will it be possible „to keep consumers close to our productions”.
The Netherlands witnessed upset in Wednesday’s regional elections as the new center-right agrarian BoerBurgerBeweging party („Farmer Citizen Movement”) emerged as the big winner. In a shock electoral shift, the BBB party won 15 (of 75) seats in the Senate, the first official results show. The Provincial Council elections decide representatives for Provincial States. With local councils sending delegates to the Senate, yesterday’s vote has greater bearing at the national level. The results give an important indication of the general opinion of the current government although they are not as important as the national elections for the House of Representatives – which are due to take place in 2025. However, discussing with a Dutch businessman reveals the effort of the ruling parties to make any compromise in order to keep out the farmers from the circle of power. Are farmers dangerous?!
Another remark: it is still unbelievable for most of the players on the market that there are no frozen pork stocks.
With an average of 10% less pigs in the EU, the market is redrawn. Dutsch pigs are already going to Germany, probably the Belgians will go to Spain. I don’t see a surplus this year.
And what was missing to influence the market: Reuters is reporting new ASF outbreaks in China. Abolishing 0 Covid regulation, together with the Lunar New Year, probably also sped up the distribution of this virus. As „chinese” usual, in the beginning we will see a lot of pigs on the slaughterhouse, but after… We already have got signs that China will buy pork again. This would be the last element to send the pig industry into a perfect storm!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qpq-4yc0OA0

European pig and piglet prices: HW= Hot weight; L= live weight;

COUNTRY	PIG(EUR)	TREND	PIGLET(EUR)	TREND	OBSERVATION
GERMANY	2,28 HW		80/25 kg
NETHERLANDS	2,09-2,3 HW		75,50/25 kg
BELGIUM	1,65 L		72/20 kg
DANEMARK	1,61 HW		79/25 kg
FRANCE	2,374 HW
ITALY	1,87 L- 115 kg, 2,19 L- 160 kg, DOC		131,4/30 kg
SPAIN	1,98-2 L		101-110/20kg
PORTUGAL	2,752 HW
AUSTRIA	2,24 HW		95 /25 kg
POLAND	1,65-1,97 L		79-121/20-30 kg		Partner info; no quotation
CROATIA	2-2,50 HW		100-105/ 25 kg		Partner info; no quotation
SERBIA	2,05 L		99-108/ 25 kg		Partner info; no quotation
CZECH R.	2,22-2,29 HW		73-80/ 25 kg		Partner info; no quotation
SLOVAKIA	1,85-1,95 L		98-101/25 kg		Partner info; no quotation
HUNGARY	1,80-1,90 L		98-101/ 25 kg		Partner info; no quotation
ROMANIA	1,74-1,87 L		100-109/25kg		Partner info; no quotation